Psychology
Anchoring
You are buying a used bike online. The seller lists it at $500. You think that sounds high, but every counteroffer you type sits near that number. $400 feels bold. $350 feels rude. Then you open another tab and see the same model for $300. Now $300 feels normal and $250 feels brave. You did not learn much about bikes. You only saw a different first number, and your sense of what is fair moved to match it.
Anchoring is when the first number pulls the rest of your thinking toward it. We grab it and adjust from there because our brains save effort by starting with what is in front of us. The start point feels like information, even when it is not. That is why an asking price, a 'suggested tip', or a high first bid pulls the rest of the talk toward it. The effect is strong even when the number is random. Once it drops like a heavy anchor on a number line, later guesses swim close to it.
Therefore
Set your own reference before you hear theirs. Look up base rates, write down your number, and step away if someone pulls you back to theirs.
Tversky and Kahneman, 1974
They brought in students. They spun a wheel labeled 0 to 100 but rigged to stop on 10 or 65. Then they asked 'Is the percentage of African countries in the U.N. higher or lower than that number? What is your best guess?' Students who saw 10 guessed about 25 percent. Students who saw 65 guessed about 45 percent. The wheel had nothing to do with Africa or the U.N. It was a random anchor that pulled the guesses. The pair ran more tests with salaries and math problems. The first number kept steering people.
A small reminder, on a pricing sheet or a hiring plan, that the first number drags every later guess.
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